The good, bad and ugly for agriculture in Budget 2023
Shweta Saini and Siraj Hussain | The Print | March 7, 2023
The retail price in Delhi continues to be Rs 23 per kg while the farmers in Lasalgaon get only about Rs 7 per kg. The start-ups in the field have failed to connect farmers to consumers.
A farmer spends anywhere between Rs 4 to Rs 8 to produce a kilogram of onion. If one included the cost of his own labour, capital, and land, this cost could rise to Rs 15 per kg in some states, as per the inflation-adjusted data from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics for 2019-20.
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The good, bad and ugly for agriculture in Budget 2023
Shweta Saini | Deccan Herald | February 2, 2023
The good centered on, among other things, technology, entrepreneurs, and fisheries. Interestingly, most interventions suggested in the Budget under these heads viewed agricultural activities as a seamless chain starting from procuring quality inputs …
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Some hits and misses for India’s agricultural sector in Budget 2023
Shweta Saini | The Print | February 2, 2023
Being the last full budget before the 2024 Lok Sabha election, expectations from Budget 2023, which Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented Wednesday, were rife. It was believed, for instance, that the amount given to farmers under the PM-KISAN scheme would be increased. While some expectations were successfully met, there were some disappointments too. Here’s a quick look. Read more…
Ethanol blending crucial to cut oil imports but doubling it will hurt India’s food security
Shweta Saini, Pulkit Khatri and Siraj Hussain | The Print | January 20, 2023
In 2022, close to 1 million metric tonnes of rice from the Food Corporation of India’s stocks was sold at subsidised prices to produce ethanol. As per the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, this rice was fit for human consumption.
Similar diversions of crops to produce ethanol have been happening in the open markets for rice, maize and sugarcane in the country, where food and feed processors (and food consumers) are competing with oil manufacturing companies for grains. Read more…
Losing the pulse: Farmers will suffer a setback with falling chana prices. Govt must observe
Shweta Saini and Pulkit Khatri | The Print | November 28, 2022
Government has invested in the National Food Security Mission (Pulses) over years. It has offered lucrative MSPs, ensured higher levels of procurement, and facilitated investments in processing and storage.
Despite this, In key mandis, prices of chana (whole) have been trailing their MSP by an average of 7 per cent in the last two years. Read more…
Punjab, Haryana can hedge India against climate-induced food shortages. See data
Siraj Hussain and Shweta Saini | The Print | November 17, 2022
The two states earned a lot of flak during the farmers’ agitation for demanding continuation of the existing system of APMCs and MSP operations. Read more…
India’s real food problem isn’t hunger but loss and wastage
Shweta Saini and Pulkit Khatri | The Print | October 17, 2022
India is the largest producer of some critical staples in the world, yet our population is nutrition- and food-deprived. One of the reasons contributing to this is India’s high level of food wastages and losses.
Contextualizing the problem, our team finds that produce from approximately about 10 million hectares of India’s agricultural land (Indian gross cropped area is about 197 million hectares) goes to waste due to food losses in a year. Read more…
Food Inflation: How Prepared Are We to Deal With a Hot March Again in 2023?
Shweta Saini and Siraj Hussain | The Wire | September 27, 2022
After three successive months of consumer price index (CPI)-based annual inflation rates being above 7%, the inflation print of July, released in August, showed a mild moderation (6.71%). This led many, including the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and its governor, to point out that India’s retail prices had “anchored” and the retail inflation was on its way down. Read more…
World is worried about India banning rice exports, but no threat to food security yet
Shweta Saini and Siraj Hussain | The Print | September 1, 2022
The World Bank’s food security update of August 2022 flagged how global concerns over the likelihood of a rice export ban by India are rising. It noted that “exporters, concerned that export restrictions will be introduced (as has been done for wheat), are moving quickly to open letters of credit and have signed contracts to export 1 million tonnes of rice from June through September 2022.” But are these concerns real? Is there any cause for worry in the case of Indian rice? Our estimates show that even though there is no palpable threat to India’s food security, the window of Indian rice exports this year may be constrained. Read more…
The Print Pod: What’s common between Modi & Manmohan govt on agriculture? Distrust of futures markets
Shweta Saini | The Print | August, 2022
Wheat or chana, one hopes that the Modi government and SEBI will lift the ban on future trading of agricultural commodities soon. Read more…
What’s common between Modi & Manmohan govt on agriculture? Distrust of futures markets
Siraj Hussain and Shweta Saini | The Print | August 25, 2022
There are at least two areas of economic regulation in agricultural markets in which the Narendra Modi government agrees with the Manmohan Singh government. First is the frequent use of the Essential Commodities Act to check inflationary trends in the food economy. The second is the distrust of future markets for price discovery of agricultural commodities.
The table below shows the suspensions imposed on future trading by various governments in India. Read more…
Pitfalls in a promise: Rajasthan’s urban income security efforts throw up new challenges
Jugal Mohapatra and Siraj Hussain | The Print | August 22, 2022
Some recent events in the political arena signal that unemployment, particularly among the youth, has emerged as a major issue of concern for the parties in power at the Centre and states.
Early this year, during the elections to five state assemblies, media reports highlighted that young voters were disappointed at the shrinking opportunities for gainful jobs. Probably this prompted Prime Minister Narendra Modi to announce in June that the government would recruit a million candidates in various jobs over the next one and a half years. Read more…
La seguridad alimentaria de la India se debe a la Revolución Verde
Siraj Hussain | The Print | August 20, 2022
El éxito de la revolución verde de la India demostró que la ciencia, unida a una buena política, una burocracia eficiente, el apoyo de los jefes políticos y un federalismo cooperativo en sentido real, podía vencer las predicciones maltusianas de hambre y hambruna. Foto: USAID/Flickr (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0) Read more…
2015 के बाद से शाकाहारी भारतीय थाली की कीमत में 42% का इजाफा, वह भी दही, चाय और फलों को शामिल किये बिना
Shweta Saini | The Print | August 18, 2022
पांच लोगों के एक औसत परिवार के लिए, हल्के भोजन वाली मासिक थाली की कीमत साल 2015 के 4,700 रुपये से बढ़कर साल 2022 में 6,700 रुपये हो गई है.
मुद्रास्फीति, विशेष रूप से खाद्य मुद्रास्फीति, न केवल भारत में बल्कि वैश्विक स्तर पर चर्चाओं के केंद्र में रही है. भारत में जून 2022 के मुद्रास्फीति के आंकड़ों में थोड़ी नरमी आने के बावजूद, खाद्य मुद्रास्फीति की दर इस वर्ष की शुरुआत से ही 6 से 8 प्रतिशत के असहज दायरे में बनी हुई है. अब सवाल यह है कि यह उच्च खाद्य मुद्रास्फीति (खाने-पीने की चीजों की बढ़ी हुई कीमतें) एक औसत भारतीय को किस प्रकार प्रभावित करती है? इसका अनुमान लगाने के लिए हम एक साधारण मीट्रिक (मापक यंत्र) का उपयोग करते हैं: यानी कि एक औसत भारतीय खाने की घर में तैयार की गई एक थाली में कितना खर्च होता है?. Read more…
Cost of a veg Indian thali has jumped 42% since 2015. That too without curd, tea, fruits
Shweta Saini and Pukit Khatri | The Print | August 17, 2022
Inflation, particularly food inflation, has been centre stage not just in India but globally. Despite moderation observed in India’s June 2022 inflation print, food inflation continues to stay in the uncomfortable zone of 6 to 8 per cent since the start of the year. How does this high food inflation impact an average Indian? We use a simple metric to estimate this: How much does it cost an average Indian to have one homemade thali of food? Read more…
Report | Performance of Agriculture in Uttar Pradesh Region – Wise Analysis
Shyma Jose, Siraj Hussain and Ashok Gulati | ICRIER | July, 2022
The agricultural sector in Uttar Pradesh has a significant impact on the food security of the country. During 2002-03 to 2015-16 (at 2011-12 constant prices), the state registered an agricultural growth of 2.3 per cent per annum. Within the state, there are large regional variations in the growth pattern. For instance, Bundelkhand, a water-scarce region with poor soil quality, registered agricultural growth of 3.7 per cent per annum during the same period, followed by the western region (2.7 per cent per annum), central region (2.6 per cent per annum) and eastern region (1.6 per cent per annum). Although Bundelkhand registered a high growth during the study period, the growth rate has been volatile (measured by the coefficient of variation) due to recurring droughts and scanty rainfall. Read more…
Inflation pinching your pocket? There is more in the pipeline. But god can help
Shweta Saini, Siraj Hussain and Pulkit Khatri | The Print | July 18, 2022
Data on India’s wholesale price index (WPI) and retail or consumer price index (CPI) were released recently for the month of June 2022. Compared to May 2022, there is slight reduction in both wholesale and retail inflation rates at the overall level. For food items, while the retail inflation rate moderated marginally, wholesale inflation levels soared, reaching new peaks in June 2022. We interpret and analyse these numbers. Read more…
Does India have enough rice for welfare schemes and ethanol? What the govt is missing
Siraj Hussain | The Print | July 14, 2022
The Narendra Modi government’s move to ban wheat export was followed by several other measures to conserve stocks, which were projected to deplete in 2022-23 on account of lower procurement in the central pool, continuation of Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana up to September, and the possibility 5 million tonnes being exported. Allocation of wheat was substituted by rice, even in predominantly wheat-consuming states. But how long will India’s rice stocks last? We examine its availability in 2022-23 and beyond. Read more…
A Fresh Spike in Farmer Suicides in Punjab
Shweta Saini, Siraj Hussain and Pulkit Khatri | The India Forum | June 30, 2022
Farmer suicides are back in focus. Media reports suggest that in April 2022 alone 14 Punjab farmers died by suicide. According to the Bharatiya Kisan Union (Ugrahan), the biggest farmers’ union in Punjab, 55 farmers and farm labourers died by suicide since 1 April 2022. These farmers seem to have been hit hard by the rising costs of inputs such as land rent, diesel, and fertilisers on one hand and losses in two consecutive crop seasons on the other. Cotton in kharif 2021 was damaged by the pink bollworm pest and wheat in rabi 2021–22 suffered losses due to high temperatures in March 2022. Read more…
India has a dal problem – open import policy is hurting prices and farmers
Shweta Saini, Siraj Hussain and Pukit Khatri | The Print | June 23, 2022
Introduced as part of the Narendra Modi government’s aggressive measures last year to tame the spike in prices of pulses, it is time to review the open import policy of tur and urad. These pulses, in addition to chana and mung, have been trading below their MSP levels for a while now. With an open import policy till March 2023, the likelihood of prices rising this year are also grim. Read more…
How food prices play out in India this year will depend on global inflation and local rains
Shweta Saini and Pukit Khatri | The Print | May 20, 2022.
Since March 2021, prices in the wholesale markets have been rising much faster than in the retail markets in India. Consequently, many experts predicted retail inflation would slowly ‘catch up’ with wholesale inflation in the coming months. In April 2022, at least in case of food, this ‘catching-up’ appears to have happened. Read more…
Against the grain: Farmers may still be able to export some wheat
Shweta Saini and Siraj Hussain | The Financial Express | May 17, 2022
The May 13, 2022, order of the ministry of commerce to completely ban wheat exports came as a surprise to most observers, even though indications were available that the Centre was already discouraging exports by restricting the rail movement to ports from wheat-surplus states; however, senior functionaries were still giving statements that exports would continue. This assured the trade and farmers that a complete ban is not to be expected in the next 2-3 months. It seems to have persuaded many traders to enter into contracts with exporters for supplying wheat, but with the sudden ban, some of them may have to book losses. Read more…
Farm loan waivers: Farmer indebtedness a symptom, not the syndrome
Shweta Saini and Siraj Hussain | The Financial Express | May 17, 2022
Farm loan waivers: Farmer indebtedness a symptom, not the syndrome With unaddressed factors of distress (like continued production losses, volatility in market prices, unstable incomes, etc), loan waivers provide only temporary relief. Read more…
India had dropped the ball & exported excess wheat in 2004-05. Modi govt shouldn’t repeat it
Shweta Saini, Siraj Hussain and Pulkit Khatri | The Print | May 04, 2022
It is clear by now that Indian wheat production in 2021-22 Rabi season is going to be lower than the government’s second advance estimate of 16 February 2022, of 111.32 million metric tonnes (MMTs). The moot question is by how much? Also, if the production is lower, then what is the amount of wheat that the country can afford to export to meet the global wheat demand? Read more…
Report | Farm Loan Waivers in India
Shweta Saini, Siraj Hussain and Pukit Khatri | NABARD-BKS | April, 2022
Farm loan waivers (FLWs) have been announced by the Union and State Governments several times in the last few decades. Some states have even announced multiple loan waivers in successive years. Favourable electoral results for the announcing political parties have somehow provided political legitimacy to these waivers over the years. However, despite waivers, the distress of Indian farmers continues. This is in addition to the damage these waivers have done to the credit culture in the country. With this background, this study, sponsored by NABARD, was conducted in Maharashtra, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh. It traces the FLWs and assesses the impact on state governments, financial institutions and farmers. Read more…
Participate in the recorded event clicking this link – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXhcue4APXs
In Wake of Ukraine War, India Set to See Rising Food Grain Prices
Siraj Hussain and Shweta Saini | The Wire | April 21, 2022
Even the critics of India’s public distribution system (PDS) acknowledge that it worked well during the Covid-19 pandemic. Additional allocations of free food grains at 5 kg per person per month, under Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY), helped prevent mass hunger over the last two years. Some states also provided gram, salt and edible oils to ration card holders. Read more…
Why India shouldn’t get carried away by wheat, rice export bonanza due to Ukraine war
Siraj Hussain and Shweta Saini | The Print | April 20, 2022
India’s neighbourhood is reeling under extremely high rates of food inflation, causing massive political uncertainty. Within its domestic borders, retail food inflation is catching up too. In March 2022, India’s retail food inflation rate was 7.7 per cent, up from 5.9 per cent in February and 4.9 per cent a year ago. While inflation in vegetables, oils and fats, and livestock products was extremely high, that in cereals and products was under 5 per cent. Read more…
Inertia or economics? Why Punjab’s farmers can’t move beyond rice and wheat
Shweta Saini and Siraj Hussain | The Print | April 18, 2022
Every time we visit Punjab, we ask farmers why they stick with the rice-wheat cropping pattern year on year. Especially when most are witnessing receding underground water levels, forcing them to deepen their borewells each year during the paddy season. One answer from a young farmer stayed with us. He said, if you give us profitable and stable markets, we will produce whatever you want us to produce. Read more…
Volatile rains, low crop yields – What IMD prediction of ‘normal monsoon’ hides
Shweta Saini and Siraj Hussain | The Print | April 15, 2022
Monsoon is central to the Indian economy. In the four monsoon months of June to September, the country receives close to 75 per cent of its annual rainfall. Anything that disrupts monsoons, affects the economy. Read more…